Recap 23 - 12 -2010

Two trades. First one was the open test drive scenario. Small loss. Then short, covered with small profit. Allover a breakeven day.

Trade Plan 12 - 23 - 2010

The VA continue to rise, but close was below previous days VA. Clearly this signalls a downward bias or opportunity in short side. Retest of yesterdays VAL is a goood opportunity to go short. Some other trade ideas marked in chart.

SL is 10 points.

Recap 22 - 12 - 2010

Open test drive, nice trade, but scatched second half. Later it formed a balance area above previous distribution and broke down. My plan was to go short on retest of VAL which never happened.

Blue cross shows entry and red ones exit

Trade Plan 12 - 22 - 2010

NIFTY

VA continue to rise. But range is small. Breakout from the VA is a trade opportunity.  5 traded plans are marked in chart. Ooops, in the last two days open deos not fit into any trade plans.

Watch the monthly profile and Merged profiles.
The profile shows lack od development in the middle part, or is it remain as Double Didtribution
In merged profile view, the verical move is losinsg steam as it formed a balanced day. These are hints pointing to a down move.

Another scenario for today

Recap 12 - 21 - 2010

The blue cross shows buy and red cross shows sell

Partial exits in reliance are marked as red crosses

Not a good day but certaintly not a bad day. Managed to get little profit. Market was bracketing most of the time today and there was not much movement, but Value was building above previous VA, so held the trades for a long time.

Trades Trigered

NIFTY open had shown possibility of breakout at VAH 5990.6 and a breakout buy was trigered at 6001.65. SL below 5983. exit half position at 6023

Tatasteel - Breakout at opn buy trigered at 672.55

Reliance Buy at 1060.65

Nifty and Tata Steel trades were not as per trade ideas shown in analysis. The open bar negated the reversal possibilities at VAH.

Trade Plan for 12 - 21 - 2010

Nifty - VA moved Higher and market developed in thursdays vertical movement area. Mondays profile seems not complete and requires more development. However it has developed a small VA in the lower portion. Some more rotation is expected today to complete the profile. The lower distribution VAH 5910.50 is a good buy point if nifty comes to that level before fully developing the profile.Note the buying tail at Thursdays POC. And the SL for today is 11 points.

Watch this merged profile. Market is ripe for next vertical move

Horizontal development of about 2 hours or more in between the upper distribution and middle distribution negates these trade plans.

RELIANCE

reliance broke out from the balance area created by overlapping VA of 14, 15 and 16. And it is retesting the POC of that merged profile.

Do the breakout fail ? Ahaaa.. I dont Know, but the trade plan is below

So many possibilities, how to trade them. The open and market development provide hints to which way market is developing. What is shown is high probability reversal levels. And the SL for today is 3 points.

TATA STEEL

Rising VA and well developed VA. Also a P. A down move may emerge from VAH 670.22. But overall bias is for upward move and best trade is the buy marked with an up arrow at 663.

Recap of 12 - 20 2010

Nifty opened in the lower VA, right on the POC and immediately rejected from there and broke out of that VA. That rejection hints an asymmetric trade opportunity and buy trigered at VAH 5912 + 11 points. but entry point was second balance areas VAL. So waited for nifty to accept into that balance area. Buy trigered later at 5924 on retest of VAL.

Tata steel gapped down, but moved as expected.

and relaince behaved like nifty

This type of open happens frequently, so one should have prepared for such scenarios also in trade preparation work

REliance Trade Plan 20-12-2010

Reliance is balancing after a vertical up move. Breakout from balance represents next asymmetric trade opportunity.

Some Trade ideas.

1. Breakout at open - Buy if trades above 1062.20(if moves up from 1058.75 at open) or on retest of 1058.75. SL 1055 (if opens higher and comes down at open).

2. In scenario 3 (Short setup) sell with SL 3.5 points.

Volatility linked SL for today is 3.5 points at these key reference points. But on a breakout buy at 1062.2, a large SL should be used to avoid getting stopped out on retest of 1058.75 reference point.

Tata Steel Trade Plan for 20 - 12 -2010

Here I am analysing few Stocks

Tata steel traded upward nicely in the last few days. Here is the trade plan. Note the rising VA.
                                 

Key reference point is 654.20. Two scenarios are shown in chart. SL is 2 points.

Nifty Futures trade plan 20 - 12 - 2010

On thursday nifty formed a balance area at the bottom and broke above VA. However VA was declining for the last 3 days. There is a small buying tail.

Expect Nifty to trade higher today. Two trade plans are marked in chart below.

1. Opens near previous close and tests VAH 5953.80 and rises. In this case buy at 5954 with SL below 5943. But if a well defined VA is developed above and nifty comes to this reference point, do not buy.

2. Opens wthin Value area 2 or comes into Value Area 2 at open (wthin the first minute of open), then buy at POC 5928 or at VAL 5923.60 with SL of 11 points. But if a well defined VA is developed above and nifty comes to this reference point, do not buy.

3. Nifty opens within Value Area 2 and tests VAH 5953.8 sell at 5954 with SL 11 points. If the SL is hit and nifty goes up buy at SL point 5965 or on a retest of 5954 level.

Prefered trade ideas are 1 and 2. trade plan 3 needs discretion to execute.

And the Targets ! You need a minimum risk rewards of 1:2. Take more profits if you can.

Ok, What if the market opens higher or trades higher without trigering a long opportunity discussed above.

See Chart below. SL same 11 points.